Updates from the news #10; 23 October 2023

Bill McKibben points out that U.S. development of Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) will be a major carbon bomb. More than two dozen new or expansion LNG projects are under construction or consideration. This build-out would be a sick joke if the consequences were not so profound. Our political system is truly broken when these projects can move forward even as we experience increasingly devastating consequences from global heating. The Guardian provides an expanded review of the stark obscenity of this planned expansion of LNG in the U.S.

Climate Defiance has recently protested and interrupted (bird-dogged) various administration officials such as Rahm Emanuel, Jennifer Granholm, and Pete Buttigieg at public meetings. Emanuel pushed through the Alaska LNG project, which will drive a massive increase in emissions that is 20 times greater than the Willow Project. Climate Defiance takes direct action to expose continued government support of fossil fuels. Their argument is “direct action puts the state in a double-bind: allow the action (and disruption) to continue or crack down, further driving up public support for the cause. Buttigieg is responsible for approving two major oil terminals. Energy Secretary Granholm has major influence on the current massive expansion of LNG terminals. There can be no doubt that the young voters who helped put Biden in office feel betrayed.

The ninth edition of a compendium of scientific, medical, government, and media reports on the extreme negative health effects of fracking. As reported by Inside Climate News it contains references to almost 2,500 papers. It is well established that fracking is a severe health hazard.

The US Energy Information Agency projects that global energy consumption will generally outpace efficiency gains (i.e., carbon emissions intensity) by 2050. Our species is losing ground in this battle to salvage a livable civilization because:

  • Increasing population and income offset the effects of declining energy and carbon intensity on emissions.
  • The shift to renewables to meet growing electricity demand is driven by regional resources, technology costs, and policy (my translation for “policy” = vested political interests).
  • Energy security is driving increases in renewables at the same time it drives increased fossil fuel consumption in some countries, especially China.

A little-known international law allows fossil majors to sue governments for lost income when controls are put on their activities and emissions. ICN reports on the Investor-state dispute settlement process (ISDS). In 2015 a British oil firm successfully sued Italy and more fossil fuel companies are weaponizing this tactic.

Environment America has published a renewable energy dashboard. You can use this to compare the progress of various U.S. states. The Florida state government brags about being in third place, but this is a very distant third. In 2022 Florida used renewables for only 5% of its electricity, up from 0% in 2013. Florida is a very hostile regulatory and political environment for solar energy. Sunshine State?

Project Drawdown has published the top 20 high-impact climate actions for households and individuals. These individual choices will have a minor impact compared to the strict regulations needed from states, nations, and international treaty. The ranking reflects cumulative avoided emissions over 30 years. The two most important are food related.

The CBC has published a review of why the 2023 fire season in Canada has been so devastating. Five charts illustrate the drivers of ongoing fires. 18 million hectares have burned. This is two and a half times the previous record set in 1995 and six times the average over the previous 10 years. It is interesting that the total number of fires has not increased. About half are caused by lightning and half by human activity. The map shows the Fire Weather Index for June – August 2023. The NYT has a special report on how megafires are transforming the biosphere during what has been called the Pyrocene.

The Global Carbon Project will report on global emissions trends projected for 2023 at the COP28 in Dubai. This is not a pretty graph.

Many casual observers have suggested that we can simply move agriculture north as warming makes these regions more hospitable to crops. This suggestion is ridiculously facile and ignores many specific issues such as the huge impacts on wildlife, pollinator-crop interactions, carbon emissions from disrupted soils, and conservation of nature. This notion also reveals a profound misunderstanding of the pace of warming in the north relative to the increasing frequency of drought and heat stress in regions where we presently grow our crops. An implied horror of this attitude is that such a strategy would abandon the Global South.  A recent review shows moving agriculture as global heating unfolds would negatively affect not only regions in the north but also some tropical regions. Wilderness areas worldwide would be under threat.

A new report from the Sierra Club shows that most utilities that pledge net-zero by 2050 are blowing smoke. The Southern Company and its subsidiaries are prime offenders. These utilities are doing next to nothing to reduce emissions and they have no serious plans to do so.

An extreme record-setting drought on the Amazon and its major tributary, the Rio Negro, is isolating many communities that depend on the rivers as the only means of access. The capital city of Manaus is also experiencing dangerous air quality due to large forest fires in the region. These extremes are bringing misery to many thousands of people and devastating wildlife. I worked in this region of Amazonia and I find this turn of events personally heartbreaking. The NYT has an expanded review of how drought is pushing the Amazon to the brink.

The science journalist and author Mark Lynas points out that the scientific truth about climate change is bad enough. Activists, educators, journalists, and experts in fields not directly dealing with climate change must be assiduous about critically evaluating claims – even those claims that can appear in lesser-known yet mainstream journals. Lynas has a lot of company in expressing such caution. Michael Mann, Zeke Hausfather, and many other climate scientists had made such admonishments, especially referencing mainstream media such as the WSJ.  Here Lynas takes on the claim that two degrees warming will cause a billion deaths. There is no evidence that mortality would be so high. The reality is bad enough.

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service has finalized a rule removing 21 species from the list of threatened and endangered species under the Endangered Species Act because they are extinct. The Center for Biological Diversity has listed the 21 species that are now considered extinct.

Electric vehicle fires are very rare. Gas and diesel vehicles burn 20 times more frequently. People who have taken more than few trips around the sun may remember when naysayers claimed that the Prius would be a major fire hazard when it was first introduced to the U.S. market in 2000. I have many negative things to say about my 2014 Prius (e.g., it is hugely uncomfortable, the build is sloppy, the ride is rough, Toyota Service is very expensive), but the danger of fire never crosses my mind.