Updates from the news #9 – 15 October 2023

There continues to be a lot of online discussion of the astonishing leap in global heating during September. The increase was about 5˚C above any previous monthly record. Inside Climate News notes that regardless of the putative cause, most climate scientists (including me) are worried.  Among the noise about this, one article stands out to me – The NYT opinion piece by Zeke Hausfather. Hausfather has been one of the most moderate voices in the climate science community.  In this article he seemingly abandons this stance and notes that the ongoing spike in global heating reflects an acceleration relative to previous periods. In part this has been due to cleaner air because of reductions in aerosol pollution.

Figure from NYT 14 October 2023.

Unlike James Hanson, he does not believe that there is continued extreme global heating in the pipeline if we reduce emissions to near zero. I critically follow Hansen’s argument and he might have a case that we are in for a rough ride based on amplification from the Southern Ocean and the increasing global energy imbalance. But I agree with Michael Mann and Hausfather that we can control how warm the planet gets. We have the agency to stop the rise in temperatures, but we first need to kill the fossil fuel industry. Mann points out that there has been no evidence of acceleration in heat uptake by the oceans. However, it is clear that sea surface temperatures dramatically increased this August and September.

NOAA aims to restore corals in the Florida Keys through its new program “Mission: Iconic Reefs”. Since the late 1970 healthy coral in the Keys has fallen 90%. In fact, over 90% of the world’s warm water corals may be lost by mid-century under even the most optimistic of climate warming scenarios. The program will employ a long-term restoration process based on transplanting species of coral that are resistant to ocean heating and acidification.

California Gov. Gavin Newsome has signed into law several new rules related to emissions and climate change. Two of these will require companies with $1 billion or more revenue to report both direct (Scope 1) and indirect (Scope 2 and Scope 3) emissions from supply chains and use of their products. Prior to this rule companies were required to report only direct emissions from operations. The new regulation will affect more than a dozen corporations doing business in the fifth largest economy in the world. Most of these large corporations have been preparing for this for several years, and about two-thirds of S&P 500 voluntarily report these emissions to the CDP (previously known as the Carbon Disclosure Project). Reporting for The Conversation, Daniel Marino notes that companies need to make their disclosures consistent, comparable, and accountable.

The International Energy Agency projects that solar will attract more capital than oil production for the first time ever in 2023. In May, the IEA published World Energy Investment 2023.

The Biden administration Department of Energy announced on Friday that it has selected seven projects for a $7 billion program to launch the development and production of hydrogen fuel. Presently more than 95% of hydrogen is produced with fossil fuels, mostly fossil gas. Producing hydrogen in this way is often more emissions intensive than simply burning fossil gas for energy. At the end of 2021, only about 4% of global hydrogen production was from energy derived from renewable energy. Even more concerning is the recent discovery (2022) that, although not a heteroatomic gas like CO₂, the Global Warming Potential (GWP) of H₂ is about 12 times greater than CO₂ over 100 years.

The Trump administration EPA downlisted the Florida Manatee as no longer Endangered in 2017. Of course, this was a ridiculously stupid move not based on compelling science. All of the scientific reviewers of the proposal objected. During 2021 and 2022 almost 2,000 manatees died – about 20% of the remaining population. The extreme mortality was due to starvation, toxic algal blooms, and habitat destruction. Under political pressure, the EPA is now reconsidering the status of the manatee.

The next time you buy baked goods at the grocery store, read the ingredients label. You will inevitably find palm oil listed. The palm oil industry has destroyed vast areas of Indonesian forest. A recent report shows that half of the palm oil plantations are illegal.

Australian First Nations peoples received a devastating blow on Saturday when voters solidly rejected a parliamentary referendum to give Indigenous peoples a constitutional right to advise policy and lawmakers on issues that directly affect First Nations people. Much of the effort to oppose this seemingly reasonable request was promoted and financed by the shadowy worldwide consortium of right-wing think tanks known as the Atlas Network (yes, sometimes conspiracy does exist). The Atlas Network exists to criminalize climate protests and generally carry water for the fossil majors. Australia’s First Nations peoples are often at the frontline opposing expansion of fossil fuels.

Worldwide there is a dangerous process underway to criminalize climate activists. Award-winning journalist Amy Westervelt and colleagues from several countries have documented this trend.

Climate researcher Gianluca Grimalda has for many years been a conscientious objector to flying because of the enormous carbon emissions associated with such travel. Recently his company demanded that he return to Germany from his research site near Papua New Guinea, and Gimalda refused to fly. He was fired.

The preferred scientific measure of human tolerance for heat is the Wet Bulb temperature, which combines temperature, humidity, sunlight, and wind. Unlike the Heat Index, this measure is not intended to reflect how hot it feels, but instead the upper limit at which the human body can dissipate heat over a prolonged period. This value has been 35˚C (95˚F) based on past research. New research shows that this value is closer to 31˚C (88˚F) for young, healthy subjects. Many regions of the world are now experiencing, and many more will soon experience, prolonged periods of this lethal threshold.

You may have noticed a correlation among misogyny, authoritarianism, and climate denial. This peer-reviewed publication provides compelling data that this is no coincidence. Authoritarian leaders, and those who lean that way, often portray environmentalism as feminine and inferior.  This paper notes that globally democracy is under attack from what the authors term Electorally Legitimated Misogynist Authoritarian (ELMA) leaders. Sustainability is often considered to be a feminine project. The women in my undergraduate climate and sustainability courses at UF outnumber the men by at least 8 to 1. In one course this semester it is 9.5 to 1.

This article reports on findings from Mark Jacobson and his team at Stanford showing that switching to renewable energy will cost $62 trillion, but the payback would be only 6 years.

Astonishingly, the US Forest Service has proposed a rule that would allow carbon pipelines and roads for same through National Forests. The rule would give perpetual “right of use” for carbon waste injection in national forests. More than 9,000 people have urged the Forest Service to halt this abomination.

The Chronicle of Higher Education has reported on proposed draconian new Anti-DEI regulations being considered by the Florida State Legislature. The Chronicle states that “the proposed regulation, which spans just over two pages, would define diversity, equity, and inclusion as any program, activity, or policy that promotes differential or preferential treatment of individuals, or classifies such individuals on the basis of race, color, sex, national origin, gender identity, or sexual orientation. Political or social activism is defined as any activity organized with a purpose of effecting or preventing change to a government policy, action, or function, or any activity intended to achieve a desired result related to social issues.” Each public university is to designate an official charged with monitoring activity by the faculty and administration. Certainly devastating for DEI programs, this law would clearly include so-called “controversial” issues such as climate change and the practice of redlining.